冬の新作続々登場 トーマスワイルド ブランドバッグ バッグ トートバッグ

Tyler Durden's picture


Back in December 2013 we pointed out something that virtually nobody had noted or discussed: when it comes to "credit" creation, China's $15 trillion in freshly-created bank loans since the financial crisis - ostensibly the global credit buffer that allowed China to not get dragged down by the western recession - dwarfed the credit contribution by DM central banks.


In order to offset the lack of loan creation by commercial banks, the "Big 4" central banks - Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE - have had no choice but the open the liquidity spigots to the max. This has resulted in a total developed world "Big 4" central bank balance of just under $10 trillion, of which the bulk of asset additions has taken place since the Lehman collapse.
How does this compare to what China has done? As can be seen on the chart below, in just the past 5 years alone, Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion, as we showed yesterday. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined!
And that is how - in a global centrally-planned regime which is where everyone now is, DM or EM - your flood your economy with liquidity. Perhaps the Fed, ECB or BOJ should hire some PBOC consultants to show them how it's really done.

This dramatic divergence in credit creation continued for about a year, then gradually Chinese new loans topped out primarily due to regulation slamming shut ワンピース姿美女 and since credit accumulation resulted in parallel build up in central bank reserves, the current period of debt creation going into reverse has led to not only China's currency devaluation but what we first warned was Reverse QE, and has since picked up the more conventional moniker "Quantitative Tightening."
But while China's credit topping process was inevitable, a far more sinister development has emerged: as we 湯屋敷孝楽 回数券20枚セット 未使用, while DM central banks - excluding the Fed for the time being - have continued to pump liquidity at full blast into the global, fungibly-connected, financial system, there has been virtually no impact on risk assets...

... especially in the US where the S&P is now down not only relative to the end of QE3, but is down 5% Y/Y - the biggest annual drop since 2008.
This cross-flow dynamic is precisely what David Tepper was アンティーク風ワインローズリース40㎝位when the famous hedge fund manager declared the "Tepper Top" and went quite bearish on the stock market.
This dynamic is also the topic of a must-read report by Citi's Matt King titled quite simply: "Has the world reached its credit limit?" and which seeks to answer a just as important question: "Why EM weakness is having such a large impact", a question which we hinted at 2 years ago, and which is now the dominant topic within the financial community, one which may explain why development market central bank liquidity "has suddenly stopped working."
King's explanation starts by showing, in practical terms, where the world currently stands in terms of the only two metrics that matter in a Keynesian universe: real growth, and credit creation.



His summary: there has been plenty of credit, just not much growth.
So the next logical question is where has this credit been created. Our readers will know the answer: the marginal credit creator ever since the financial crisis were not the DM central banks - they were merely trying to offset private sector deleveraging and defaults; all the credit growth came from Emerging Markets in general, and China in particular.



♡ プチブライスサイズ お花とブラウンチェックワンピース&ヘアゴムリボン୨୧ ♡
Alternatively, it should come as no surprise that credit creation in EMs is the opposite: here money creation took place in the conventional loan-deposit bank-intermediated pathway, with a side effect being the accumulation of foreign reserves boosting the monetary base. Most importantly, new money created in EMs, i.e., China led to new investment, even if that investment ultimately was massively mis-allocted toward ghost cities and unprecedented commodity accumulation. It also led to what many realize is the world's most dangerous credit bubble as it is held almost entirely on corporate balance sheets where non-performing loans are growing at an exponential pace.

極美品✨極希少✨ジルサンダー JIL SANDER ミニバッグ ハンド ロゴ刻印
* * *
The above lays out the market dynamic that took place largely uninterrupted from 2008 until the end of 2014.
And then something changed dramatically.
That something is what we said started taking place last November when we pointed out the "death of the petrodollar", when as a result of the collapse in oil prices oil exporters started doing something they have never done before: they dipped into their FX reserves and started selling. This reserve liquidation first among the oil exporting emerging market, is essentially what has since morphed into a full blown capital flight from the entire EM space, and has also resulted in China's own devaluation-driven reserve (i.e., Treasury) liquidation, which this website also noted first back in May.
As King simply summarizes this most important kink in the story, after years of reserve accumulation, EMs have now shifted to reserve contraction which, in the simplest possible terms means, "money is being destroyed" which in turn is the source of the huge inflationary wave slowly but surely sweeping over the entire - both EM and DM - world.

アートドール 執事猫2
But while one can debate what the impact on money destruction would be on equities and treasurys, a far clearer picture emerges when evaluting the impact on the underlying economy. As King, correctly, summarizes without the capex boost from energy (which won't come as long as oil continues its downward trajectory), and DM investment continues to decline, there is an unprecedented build up in inventory, which in turn is pressuring both capacity utilization, the employment rate, and soon, GDP once the inevitable inventory liquidation takes place.

The take home is highlighted in the chart above, but just in case it is missed on anyone here it is again: the "fundamentals point overwhelmingly downwards."

ボッテガヴェネタ トートバッグ イントレチャート ミラー 金具 レザー 赤
Furthermore, while we have listed the numerous direct interventions by central banks over the past 7 years, the reality is that an even more powerful central bank weapon has been central bank "signalling", i.e., speaking, threatening and cajoling. As Citi summarizes "The power of CBs’ actions has stemmed more from the signalling than from the portfolio balance effect."


レジンアート 海 エポキシ オーシャン インテリア リゾート A3


THOMAS WYLDE(トーマスワイルド) スタッズレザーショルダーバッグ お値下げ!THOMAS WYLDE トーマスワイルド バッグ トーマスワイルド クラッチバッグ THOMAS WYLDE スカル ヴィンテージ カタログギフトも!【希少】thomas wylde トーマスワイルド スカル トーマスワイルド THOMAS WYLDE スカルチェーンレザーバッグ 黒 THOMAS WYLDE【トーマスワイルド】チェーンクラッチバッグ レザー します】 トーマスワイルド レザーバッグ スコーピオン /Thomas Wylde トーマスワイルド : THOMAS WYLDE - ファッションプレス 人気ブランドの新作 トーマスワイルド トートバッグ 本革 リアルファー ブラック系【メーカー公式ショップ】 トーマスワイルド☆スカル 48%割引生まれのブランドで THOMAS WYLDE トーマスワイルド バッグ 未 19万  THOMAS WYLDE トーマスワイルド スカル レザー バック 2022年最新】トーマスワイルド バッグの人気アイテム - メルカリ トーマスワイルド バッグの値段と価格推移は?|25件の売買情報を集計 します】 トーマスワイルド レザーバッグ スコーピオン /Thomas Wylde しました トーマスワイルドトートバッグの通販 by COCOshop|ラクマ トーマスワイルド(THOMAS WYLDE)|ショルダーバッグ|チェーン|キルティング|スカルスタッズ|レザー|黒|ハイブランド・ブランド専門の中古通販サイト(136342) トーマスワイルド バッグの値段と価格推移は?|25件の売買情報を集計 19万  THOMAS WYLDE トーマスワイルド スカル レザー バック トーマスワイルドのブランドバッグのスカルスタッズ レザーショルダー RINKAN - THOMAS WYLDE(T)|Yahoo!ショッピング トーマスワイルド クラッチバッグ THOMAS WYLDE スカル ヴィンテージブロンズ/メタリック ラインストーン :tm-17-001:Import shop P.I.T. - 通販 - Yahoo!ショッピング しました トーマスワイルドトートバッグの通販 by COCOshop|ラクマ セレクション トーマスワイルド ショルダーバッグ トーマスワイルド レザーバッグ スコーピオン /Thomas Wylde しました トーマスワイルドトートバッグの通販 by COCOshop|ラクマ トーマス ワイルド、 新クリエイティブディレクターのジェニー・パーク 人気ブランドの新作 トーマスワイルド トートバッグ 本革 リアルファー 正規品はそれなりの価格 トーマスワイルド ブランドバッグ トートバッグ 2022年最新】トーマスワイルド バッグの人気アイテム - メルカリ トーマスワイルドのボストンバッグを買取|大阪|リノアス八尾店 THOMAS WYLDE】トーマスワイルド『クロコ型押し チェーンショルダー しました トーマスワイルドトートバッグの通販 by COCOshop|ラクマ 2022年最新】トーマスワイルド バッグの人気アイテム - メルカリ しました トーマスワイルドトートバッグの通販 by COCOshop|ラクマ 46%割引ブラック系【日本限定モデル】 トーマスワイルド Thomas Wylde

冬の新作続々登場 トーマスワイルド ブランドバッグ バッグ トートバッグ