純正ストア NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 PC/タブレット ノートPC

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in December 2013 we pointed out something that virtually nobody had noted or discussed: when it comes to "credit" creation, China's $15 trillion in freshly-created bank loans since the financial crisis - ostensibly the global credit buffer that allowed China to not get dragged down by the western recession - dwarfed the credit contribution by DM central banks.

当時の状況を簡単に概観すると:

In order to offset the lack of loan creation by commercial banks, the "Big 4" central banks - Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE - have had no choice but the open the liquidity spigots to the max. This has resulted in a total developed world "Big 4" central bank balance of just under $10 trillion, of which the bulk of asset additions has taken place since the Lehman collapse.
 
How does this compare to what China has done? As can be seen on the chart below, in just the past 5 years alone, Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion, as we showed yesterday. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined!
 
And that is how - in a global centrally-planned regime which is where everyone now is, DM or EM - your flood your economy with liquidity. Perhaps the Fed, ECB or BOJ should hire some PBOC consultants to show them how it's really done.


This dramatic divergence in credit creation continued for about a year, then gradually Chinese new loans topped out primarily due to regulation slamming shut 【新品】Logicool G913 TKL ワイヤレスRGB キーボード and since credit accumulation resulted in parallel build up in central bank reserves, the current period of debt creation going into reverse has led to not only China's currency devaluation but what we first warned was Reverse QE, and has since picked up the more conventional moniker "Quantitative Tightening."
But while China's credit topping process was inevitable, a far more sinister development has emerged: as we Mac mini 2018 i7, while DM central banks - excluding the Fed for the time being - have continued to pump liquidity at full blast into the global, fungibly-connected, financial system, there has been virtually no impact on risk assets...




... especially in the US where the S&P is now down not only relative to the end of QE3, but is down 5% Y/Y - the biggest annual drop since 2008.
This cross-flow dynamic is precisely what David Tepper was 【Apple Pencil】APPLE MU8F2J/A 第2世代when the famous hedge fund manager declared the "Tepper Top" and went quite bearish on the stock market.
This dynamic is also the topic of a must-read report by Citi's Matt King titled quite simply: "Has the world reached its credit limit?" and which seeks to answer a just as important question: "Why EM weakness is having such a large impact", a question which we hinted at 2 years ago, and which is now the dominant topic within the financial community, one which may explain why development market central bank liquidity "has suddenly stopped working."
King's explanation starts by showing, in practical terms, where the world currently stands in terms of the only two metrics that matter in a Keynesian universe: real growth, and credit creation.

・・・特に米国ではS&P500はいまやQE3終了時よりも下落しており、年率5%下落となっている、この年率下落は2008年以来のものだ。

Kingはこう解説する、ケインズ学派のもとでは世界経済は二つの指標で成り立っている:実成長と信用創造(債務)。


His summary: there has been plenty of credit, just not much growth.
So the next logical question is where has this credit been created. Our readers will know the answer: the marginal credit creator ever since the financial crisis were not the DM central banks - they were merely trying to offset private sector deleveraging and defaults; all the credit growth came from Emerging Markets in general, and China in particular.

彼の要点:債務は増えるが成長はわずか。

答えははっきりとNO、Kingは更に解説する。



【美品 FHD 16G 512GB】ThinkPad X280 i5-8350U
Alternatively, it should come as no surprise that credit creation in EMs is the opposite: here money creation took place in the conventional loan-deposit bank-intermediated pathway, with a side effect being the accumulation of foreign reserves boosting the monetary base. Most importantly, new money created in EMs, i.e., China led to new investment, even if that investment ultimately was massively mis-allocted toward ghost cities and unprecedented commodity accumulation. It also led to what many realize is the world's most dangerous credit bubble as it is held almost entirely on corporate balance sheets where non-performing loans are growing at an exponential pace.



DISCOVERED グレンチェックコート
* * *
The above lays out the market dynamic that took place largely uninterrupted from 2008 until the end of 2014.
And then something changed dramatically.
That something is what we said started taking place last November when we pointed out the "death of the petrodollar", when as a result of the collapse in oil prices oil exporters started doing something they have never done before: they dipped into their FX reserves and started selling. This reserve liquidation first among the oil exporting emerging market, is essentially what has since morphed into a full blown capital flight from the entire EM space, and has also resulted in China's own devaluation-driven reserve (i.e., Treasury) liquidation, which this website also noted first back in May.
As King simply summarizes this most important kink in the story, after years of reserve accumulation, EMs have now shifted to reserve contraction which, in the simplest possible terms means, "money is being destroyed" which in turn is the source of the huge inflationary wave slowly but surely sweeping over the entire - both EM and DM - world.

 
アップルウォッチSE40㍉【セルラーモデル】シルバーアルミニウム
 
But while one can debate what the impact on money destruction would be on equities and treasurys, a far clearer picture emerges when evaluting the impact on the underlying economy. As King, correctly, summarizes without the capex boost from energy (which won't come as long as oil continues its downward trajectory), and DM investment continues to decline, there is an unprecedented build up in inventory, which in turn is pressuring both capacity utilization, the employment rate, and soon, GDP once the inevitable inventory liquidation takes place.




The take home is highlighted in the chart above, but just in case it is missed on anyone here it is again: the "fundamentals point overwhelmingly downwards."



オールドジョー OLD JOE OPEN COLLAR RANCH JACKET
Furthermore, while we have listed the numerous direct interventions by central banks over the past 7 years, the reality is that an even more powerful central bank weapon has been central bank "signalling", i.e., speaking, threatening and cajoling. As Citi summarizes "The power of CBs’ actions has stemmed more from the signalling than from the portfolio balance effect."

で結論はどうかというと。


【GUCCI】レザー×ニット 異素材コンビ ブーツ / 35

最新記事
Q3に自社株買いが$200Bを超えた、過去最高

ヤフオク! -「e-3」(NEC) (ノートブック、ノートパソコン)の落札相場 46%割引【お買得!】 Windows11 2019年モデル NEC NS700/N 第8世代 PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン LAVIE Home Mobile(HM750シリーズ) パールホワイト [14.0型 /intel Core i7 /SSD:512GB /メモリ:8GB /2019年秋冬モデル] NEC PC-HM750PAL ノートパソコン - www.pgridki.or.id WEB限定カラー NEC LaVie NS850 4K ノートパソコン ノートPC PC 50%割引グレイ系【送料込】 NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 NEC PC-N1575AAW ノートパソコン LAVIE N15 パールホワイト 32%割引人気定番 ✨1台限り✨高機能Core i7✨メモリ8G✨カメラ 起動しない ヨドバシカメラ ノートPCの復旧 | データ復旧の NEC LAVIE Core i7 8565U 8GB 512GB LAVIE Home Mobile HM750 PC パーティを彩るご馳走や【最終値下げ】ノートパソコンNEC LaVie PC-LS550LS1YR ノートPC 家電・スマホ・カメラ¥9,900-epmhv.quito.gob.ec NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 素晴らしい外見 NEC ノートパソコン - ノートPC - labelians.fr 特価商品 富士通 FUJITSU LIFEBOOK ノートパソコン PC Core i7 ノート 50%割引グレイ系【送料込】 NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 楽天市場】NECパーソナルコンピュータ NEC ノートパソコン LaVie Pro 宅送] ☆美品☆高年式/NEC/LAVIE/超大容量1000GB/カメラ/ノート おしゃれ】 NEC LAVIE Home Mobile HM750 PAW PC-HM750PAW パール グレイ系人気デザイナー NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 予約中!】 NEC (A53) Windows11 ノートパソコン LaVie - ノートPC グレイ系人気デザイナー NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 ブラック系価格は安く NEC ノートパソコン・第7世代 Core i3・2019年製 PC短評】家のなかで持ち運んで使える14型ノート「LAVIE Home Mobile 人気特価♥︎美品♥︎Win➓ノートパソコン☆NEC LaVie LL750/B NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 NEC LAVIE Core i7 8565U 8GB 512GB LAVIE Home Mobile HM750 PC 出産祝い NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 ノートPC 今年の新作から定番まで!早い者勝ち!NEC PC-HM750PAW パソコン 紺色 グレイ系人気デザイナー NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 32%割引気質アップ 70_ノートパソコン Core i7 SSD 東芝 メモリ8GB ☆美品☆NEC/LaVie/Core i7/大容量750GB/ノートパソコン - www ホワイト系【有名人芸能人】 高スペック/爆速4コア第4世代 i7/高速SSD NEC LAVIE Home Mobile HM750/PA(パールホワイト)- 14.0型モバイルノートパソコン[Core i7 / メモリ 8GB / SSD 512GB / Microsoft Office 2019] PC-HM750PAW NEC PC-HM750PAW(ノートパソコン)の新品/中古販売 | 1561282 | ReRe[リリ]

純正ストア NEC PC-HM750PAW ノートパソコン corei7 PC/タブレット ノートPC