店舗や値段 80%オフ 93,960円 マルセロブロン ナイロンジャケット 48 Lサイズ ジャケット/アウター ナイロンジャケット

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in December 2013 we pointed out something that virtually nobody had noted or discussed: when it comes to "credit" creation, China's $15 trillion in freshly-created bank loans since the financial crisis - ostensibly the global credit buffer that allowed China to not get dragged down by the western recession - dwarfed the credit contribution by DM central banks.

当時の状況を簡単に概観すると:

In order to offset the lack of loan creation by commercial banks, the "Big 4" central banks - Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE - have had no choice but the open the liquidity spigots to the max. This has resulted in a total developed world "Big 4" central bank balance of just under $10 trillion, of which the bulk of asset additions has taken place since the Lehman collapse.
 
How does this compare to what China has done? As can be seen on the chart below, in just the past 5 years alone, Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion, as we showed yesterday. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined!
 
And that is how - in a global centrally-planned regime which is where everyone now is, DM or EM - your flood your economy with liquidity. Perhaps the Fed, ECB or BOJ should hire some PBOC consultants to show them how it's really done.


This dramatic divergence in credit creation continued for about a year, then gradually Chinese new loans topped out primarily due to regulation slamming shut WACKO MARIA TYPE N-1 and since credit accumulation resulted in parallel build up in central bank reserves, the current period of debt creation going into reverse has led to not only China's currency devaluation but what we first warned was Reverse QE, and has since picked up the more conventional moniker "Quantitative Tightening."
But while China's credit topping process was inevitable, a far more sinister development has emerged: as we ✨新品•未使用✨高級✨エレガント✨セルジオロッシ ロングブーツ レザー ネイビー, while DM central banks - excluding the Fed for the time being - have continued to pump liquidity at full blast into the global, fungibly-connected, financial system, there has been virtually no impact on risk assets...




... especially in the US where the S&P is now down not only relative to the end of QE3, but is down 5% Y/Y - the biggest annual drop since 2008.
This cross-flow dynamic is precisely what David Tepper was 【美品】英国製 90's バーバリーロンドン ステンカラーコートインナー付 XLwhen the famous hedge fund manager declared the "Tepper Top" and went quite bearish on the stock market.
This dynamic is also the topic of a must-read report by Citi's Matt King titled quite simply: "Has the world reached its credit limit?" and which seeks to answer a just as important question: "Why EM weakness is having such a large impact", a question which we hinted at 2 years ago, and which is now the dominant topic within the financial community, one which may explain why development market central bank liquidity "has suddenly stopped working."
King's explanation starts by showing, in practical terms, where the world currently stands in terms of the only two metrics that matter in a Keynesian universe: real growth, and credit creation.

・・・特に米国ではS&P500はいまやQE3終了時よりも下落しており、年率5%下落となっている、この年率下落は2008年以来のものだ。

Kingはこう解説する、ケインズ学派のもとでは世界経済は二つの指標で成り立っている:実成長と信用創造(債務)。


His summary: there has been plenty of credit, just not much growth.
So the next logical question is where has this credit been created. Our readers will know the answer: the marginal credit creator ever since the financial crisis were not the DM central banks - they were merely trying to offset private sector deleveraging and defaults; all the credit growth came from Emerging Markets in general, and China in particular.

彼の要点:債務は増えるが成長はわずか。

答えははっきりとNO、Kingは更に解説する。



キングダム アクリルスタンド ナムコ アクスタ フィギュア
Alternatively, it should come as no surprise that credit creation in EMs is the opposite: here money creation took place in the conventional loan-deposit bank-intermediated pathway, with a side effect being the accumulation of foreign reserves boosting the monetary base. Most importantly, new money created in EMs, i.e., China led to new investment, even if that investment ultimately was massively mis-allocted toward ghost cities and unprecedented commodity accumulation. It also led to what many realize is the world's most dangerous credit bubble as it is held almost entirely on corporate balance sheets where non-performing loans are growing at an exponential pace.



DELL DX80VRCHL
* * *
The above lays out the market dynamic that took place largely uninterrupted from 2008 until the end of 2014.
And then something changed dramatically.
That something is what we said started taking place last November when we pointed out the "death of the petrodollar", when as a result of the collapse in oil prices oil exporters started doing something they have never done before: they dipped into their FX reserves and started selling. This reserve liquidation first among the oil exporting emerging market, is essentially what has since morphed into a full blown capital flight from the entire EM space, and has also resulted in China's own devaluation-driven reserve (i.e., Treasury) liquidation, which this website also noted first back in May.
As King simply summarizes this most important kink in the story, after years of reserve accumulation, EMs have now shifted to reserve contraction which, in the simplest possible terms means, "money is being destroyed" which in turn is the source of the huge inflationary wave slowly but surely sweeping over the entire - both EM and DM - world.

 
【HERMES】レザー ブーティショートブーツ ピンヒール
 
But while one can debate what the impact on money destruction would be on equities and treasurys, a far clearer picture emerges when evaluting the impact on the underlying economy. As King, correctly, summarizes without the capex boost from energy (which won't come as long as oil continues its downward trajectory), and DM investment continues to decline, there is an unprecedented build up in inventory, which in turn is pressuring both capacity utilization, the employment rate, and soon, GDP once the inevitable inventory liquidation takes place.




The take home is highlighted in the chart above, but just in case it is missed on anyone here it is again: the "fundamentals point overwhelmingly downwards."



Elgato HD60 S+ 外付けキャプチャカード OBS連携
Furthermore, while we have listed the numerous direct interventions by central banks over the past 7 years, the reality is that an even more powerful central bank weapon has been central bank "signalling", i.e., speaking, threatening and cajoling. As Citi summarizes "The power of CBs’ actions has stemmed more from the signalling than from the portfolio balance effect."

で結論はどうかというと。


[ういういさん専用]Lenovo ThinkVision M14t (14型)

最新記事
Q3に自社株買いが$200Bを超えた、過去最高

最大80%オフ! 超電マンシール 福シマ太郎ミコト 限定93枚 - その他 18150円 最大93%オフ! ☆フ569 Z900LTD KZ900B フロントディスク ベビー浴衣と甚平80 最大93%オフ! CECIL McBEE セシルマクビー レディース ピンクニット 最大80%オフ! ロンパース 半袖 まとめ売り 男の子 80 最大93%オフ! ミキハウス miki HOUSE 女の子 ボトムス 80 最大93%OFFクーポン 30%割引ホワイト系,FREE SIZE最大80%オフ! 93さん その他 トップス アディダスオリジナルス 70 80 刺繍 美品 トラックジャケット 最大93 41%割引最大80%オフ! CHANEL◇ココマーク/93年製/ヴィクトワール 1140円 最大80%オフ! S-1385未開封 鳩山由紀夫 Take Heart テイクは 6060 SERIES ホワイトグース本掛けふとん二層式増量 93% ダブル 最大80 50%割引ホワイト系,L最大80%オフ! 初期93年アベイシングエイプlast 最大93%オフ! DUNLOP ダンロップ バイク タイヤ 130 80-18 66H K155 44%割引最大10%OFFクーポン 新品‼️超長綿80サテン生地 二層キルト 30%割引ホワイト系最大80%オフ! ウェルヴィーナス 北国の恵み 93粒 Mitas E-09 Dakar Front Tire - 80% Off-Road 20% On-Road 生まれた日の新聞 傘寿祝い ポケットファイル お誕生日新聞 傘寿 菊池桃子 LD3枚セット 1円スタート C-nz199-80 《2枚未開封》ライブ PIECE ワンピース 1-93巻 【SALE/80%OFF】 くにおくん』シリーズ、『DJMAX RESPECT』『探偵 神宮寺三郎 プリズム 最大93%オフ! 父の日 2022 プレゼント ギフト 送料無料 せんべい 蛍光ストップウォッチ LUMEN 30分計 1周60秒 校正証明書付 最大80%オフ! さ〔SnY19〕1円スタート HERMES エルメス カップソーサー シェーヌダンクル ブルー 2Pセット 中古品 80サイズ 【93%OFF!】 乾燥納豆 ひきわり 1kg 国産大豆100%使用 Hiki wari natto 生きて オレンジ系最大80%オフ! 93.ヒメひまわりドライフラワーガーランド patagonia パタゴニア ジャンプスーツ つなぎ 70〜80 最大93%オフ! 最大93%オフ! USA製 80年代 希少 リバーシブルベスト ツリーカモ セット買い アイリスオーヤマ コンビネーションサークル 2段スペース 期間限定30%OFF! 80%オフ 93,960円 マルセロブロン ナイロンジャケット 48 Lサイズ ナイロンジャケット 最大93%オフ! かんてんパパゼリーの素 カップゼリー80℃ ぶどう 100g×5袋 値下げ ハリアー80系 Tマークレス グリル 【93%OFF!】 最大80%オフ! 三代目 頑駄無大将軍 未開封 ガンダム カードダス ディプティック キャンドルホルダー 【93%OFF!】 7699円 【SALE/80%OFF】 MG 1 100 RX-93 νガンダム Ver.Ka 新品 35%割引ブルー系最大80%オフ! 【新品、難あり】 キーファーノイ M最大80%オフ! M 新品 ラルフローレン ポロベアー ポロベア RL-93

店舗や値段 80%オフ 93,960円 マルセロブロン ナイロンジャケット 48 Lサイズ ジャケット/アウター ナイロンジャケット