喜ばれる誕生日プレゼント 遊戯王 ラビュリンス 悪魔嬢 デッキ トレーディングカード 遊戯王

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Back in December 2013 we pointed out something that virtually nobody had noted or discussed: when it comes to "credit" creation, China's $15 trillion in freshly-created bank loans since the financial crisis - ostensibly the global credit buffer that allowed China to not get dragged down by the western recession - dwarfed the credit contribution by DM central banks.

当時の状況を簡単に概観すると:

In order to offset the lack of loan creation by commercial banks, the "Big 4" central banks - Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE - have had no choice but the open the liquidity spigots to the max. This has resulted in a total developed world "Big 4" central bank balance of just under $10 trillion, of which the bulk of asset additions has taken place since the Lehman collapse.
 
How does this compare to what China has done? As can be seen on the chart below, in just the past 5 years alone, Chinese bank assets (and by implication liabilities) have grown by an astounding $15 trillion, bringing the total to over $24 trillion, as we showed yesterday. In other words, China has expanded its financial balance sheet by 50% more than the assets of all global central banks combined!
 
And that is how - in a global centrally-planned regime which is where everyone now is, DM or EM - your flood your economy with liquidity. Perhaps the Fed, ECB or BOJ should hire some PBOC consultants to show them how it's really done.


This dramatic divergence in credit creation continued for about a year, then gradually Chinese new loans topped out primarily due to regulation slamming shut 遊戯王 閃刀姫 高レア デッキパーツ 魔法セット and since credit accumulation resulted in parallel build up in central bank reserves, the current period of debt creation going into reverse has led to not only China's currency devaluation but what we first warned was Reverse QE, and has since picked up the more conventional moniker "Quantitative Tightening."
But while China's credit topping process was inevitable, a far more sinister development has emerged: as we JO1 WANDERING シリアルコード 20枚 シリアルナンバー, while DM central banks - excluding the Fed for the time being - have continued to pump liquidity at full blast into the global, fungibly-connected, financial system, there has been virtually no impact on risk assets...




... especially in the US where the S&P is now down not only relative to the end of QE3, but is down 5% Y/Y - the biggest annual drop since 2008.
This cross-flow dynamic is precisely what David Tepper was misa harada 中折れハット 帽子when the famous hedge fund manager declared the "Tepper Top" and went quite bearish on the stock market.
This dynamic is also the topic of a must-read report by Citi's Matt King titled quite simply: "Has the world reached its credit limit?" and which seeks to answer a just as important question: "Why EM weakness is having such a large impact", a question which we hinted at 2 years ago, and which is now the dominant topic within the financial community, one which may explain why development market central bank liquidity "has suddenly stopped working."
King's explanation starts by showing, in practical terms, where the world currently stands in terms of the only two metrics that matter in a Keynesian universe: real growth, and credit creation.

・・・特に米国ではS&P500はいまやQE3終了時よりも下落しており、年率5%下落となっている、この年率下落は2008年以来のものだ。

Kingはこう解説する、ケインズ学派のもとでは世界経済は二つの指標で成り立っている:実成長と信用創造(債務)。


His summary: there has been plenty of credit, just not much growth.
So the next logical question is where has this credit been created. Our readers will know the answer: the marginal credit creator ever since the financial crisis were not the DM central banks - they were merely trying to offset private sector deleveraging and defaults; all the credit growth came from Emerging Markets in general, and China in particular.

彼の要点:債務は増えるが成長はわずか。

答えははっきりとNO、Kingは更に解説する。



【超美品】シンプル オシャレ ミュウミュウバッグ
Alternatively, it should come as no surprise that credit creation in EMs is the opposite: here money creation took place in the conventional loan-deposit bank-intermediated pathway, with a side effect being the accumulation of foreign reserves boosting the monetary base. Most importantly, new money created in EMs, i.e., China led to new investment, even if that investment ultimately was massively mis-allocted toward ghost cities and unprecedented commodity accumulation. It also led to what many realize is the world's most dangerous credit bubble as it is held almost entirely on corporate balance sheets where non-performing loans are growing at an exponential pace.



風の月さま 専用
* * *
The above lays out the market dynamic that took place largely uninterrupted from 2008 until the end of 2014.
And then something changed dramatically.
That something is what we said started taking place last November when we pointed out the "death of the petrodollar", when as a result of the collapse in oil prices oil exporters started doing something they have never done before: they dipped into their FX reserves and started selling. This reserve liquidation first among the oil exporting emerging market, is essentially what has since morphed into a full blown capital flight from the entire EM space, and has also resulted in China's own devaluation-driven reserve (i.e., Treasury) liquidation, which this website also noted first back in May.
As King simply summarizes this most important kink in the story, after years of reserve accumulation, EMs have now shifted to reserve contraction which, in the simplest possible terms means, "money is being destroyed" which in turn is the source of the huge inflationary wave slowly but surely sweeping over the entire - both EM and DM - world.

 
【高級】オパール ルース 41.5*17.4*6.6mm
 
But while one can debate what the impact on money destruction would be on equities and treasurys, a far clearer picture emerges when evaluting the impact on the underlying economy. As King, correctly, summarizes without the capex boost from energy (which won't come as long as oil continues its downward trajectory), and DM investment continues to decline, there is an unprecedented build up in inventory, which in turn is pressuring both capacity utilization, the employment rate, and soon, GDP once the inevitable inventory liquidation takes place.




The take home is highlighted in the chart above, but just in case it is missed on anyone here it is again: the "fundamentals point overwhelmingly downwards."



JETSTAR ジェットスター フライトバウチャー
Furthermore, while we have listed the numerous direct interventions by central banks over the past 7 years, the reality is that an even more powerful central bank weapon has been central bank "signalling", i.e., speaking, threatening and cajoling. As Citi summarizes "The power of CBs’ actions has stemmed more from the signalling than from the portfolio balance effect."

で結論はどうかというと。


マイケルコース 2way ハンドバッグ ショルダー 星 赤 レッド MERCER

最新記事
Q3に自社株買いが$200Bを超えた、過去最高

遊戯王 ラビュリンス デッキパーツ 悪魔の技 悪魔嬢アリス ホビー・グ∀ 遊戯王 悪魔嬢 デッキ XUIaF-m36733689889 ラビュリンス ラビュリンス遊戯王デッキレシピ悪魔族【メタ・コントロール 遊戯王 No.769 ラビュリンス 構築済みデッキ 新品スリーブ付き 新作 悪魔嬢ロリス【ウルトラ】{VJMP-JP216}《モンスター》 遊戯王 ETCO-JP035 悪魔嬢マリス (日本語版 ノーマル) エターニティ・コード 悪魔嬢ロリス|効果予想】リリス等、既存カードの効果をおさらい 遊戯王買取相場』テーマ化される?《悪魔嬢リリス》が高騰 遊戯王OCGカード考察:《悪魔嬢アリス(あくまじょうアリス 遊戯王】ラビュリンスって面白そうですよね。いろいろ語らせてください 悪魔嬢デッキ】リリスコントロールデッキの優勝デッキレシピ,回し方 ラビュリンス】デッキの回し方・展開例【入門向け徹底解説|遊戯王OCG ラビュリンス】デッキ解説 | 遊戯王 OCG | トレカ通販・買取ならカード ランキング上位のプレゼント 遊戯王-№1027 遊戯王 ラビュリンス 白銀の 楽天市場】遊戯王 悪魔嬢リリス ウルトラレア SR06-JP000 闇属性 悪魔嬢デッキ】リリスコントロールデッキの優勝デッキレシピ,回し方 悪魔嬢ロリス」の効果考察!相性の良いテーマ・カードと気になる評価は ラビュリンス】デッキレシピ・回し方・特徴を紹介! - 遊戯王マスターラボ 豪奢な 遊戯王デッキ 悪魔嬢×ラビュリンスデッキ ガチ構築 - 遊戯王 遊戯王カード 悪魔嬢アリス ノーマル BATTLE OF CHAOS BACH | バトル・オブ・カオス 効果モンスター 闇属性 悪魔族 ノーマル 悪魔嬢ロリス|効果予想】リリス等、既存カードの効果をおさらい 悪魔嬢ロリス 悪魔嬢リリス】悪魔嬢リリスとトラップで相手に嫌がらせを!2021年10月 リリス高騰】《悪魔嬢リリス》に注目集まる|悪魔嬢ロリス 【#遊戯王】悪魔嬢とラビュリンスの相性は抜群!新規ロリスの追加で無限に罠を使い回せる 悪魔嬢リリス》の販売・買取の相場価格をチェック!【ラビュリンス ラビュリンス】デッキ解説 | 遊戯王 OCG | トレカ通販・買取ならカード 遊戯王】ラビュリンスって面白そうですよね。いろいろ語らせてください 限定販売激安 遊戯王 ラビュリンス 悪魔嬢 デッキ 遊戯王 遊戯王 ラビュリンス ノーマル 悪魔嬢 ノーマル 通常罠 デッキパーツ 双天 デッキ【ラビュリンス】 - ジェネクスと歩む遊戯王日記 遊戯王 1128『ラビュリンス』デッキ(合計40枚入り)【白銀の城のラビュ 2022年 悪魔嬢 |リリスコントロール|ディストピア】優勝・入賞デッキ 墓地や除外の罠(トラップ)カードが再び使える!! 付録カード「悪魔嬢 RAM on Twitter: 悪魔嬢リリス】 - ギルド屋さん

喜ばれる誕生日プレゼント 遊戯王 ラビュリンス 悪魔嬢 デッキ トレーディングカード 遊戯王